🇫🇮 Finland vs Lithuania: Can the Finns Bounce Back at Home?

On Oct 6, 2025

Finland vs Lithuania Match Preview

Finland’s World Cup dream took a dent last month after a 3-1 defeat in Poland, and now they’re desperate to get things back on track. They’re three points off the qualification spots with just three games left, so this one’s massive. Lithuania, meanwhile, have been struggling to pick up results but have shown they can still cause trouble going forward.

Form Guide

Finland’s recent run hasn’t exactly inspired confidence. Their defence has been shaky, leaking goals at a worrying rate — they’ve got the second-highest expected goals (xG) conceded in the group, only behind Malta. Since early 2024, they’ve managed just one clean sheet — and even that 1-0 win over Malta saw them allow 1.85 xG and six shots on target.

Lithuania aren’t doing much better results-wise, losing nine of their last twelve matches. Still, they’ve shown a bit more fight lately — both of their September qualifiers saw both teams score, including a wild 3-2 loss to the Netherlands and a 1-1 draw with Malta.

Head-to-Head

When these two met earlier in the campaign, it ended in a 2-2 draw after Lithuania clawed back from 2-0 down. That comeback showed they can trouble Finland’s backline, though the Finns will fancy their chances on home turf this time.

Team News

Finland should have their usual attacking threats available, though questions remain about their defensive setup. Expect them to stick with their standard back line despite recent issues.
Lithuania are likely to rotate slightly after their last two intense matches, but their attacking trio should remain the same given their recent scoring form.

Prediction

Finland’s defence might not be watertight, but Lithuania’s struggles to win games can’t be ignored. The home side’s superior quality and home advantage should make the difference.

Prediction: Finland 2-1 Lithuania

Players to Watch

Teemu Pukki (Finland): Always a threat, and Finland will rely on his experience and finishing touch.
Fedor Černych (Lithuania): The captain leads from the front and will be key if Lithuania are to nick a goal.

Betting Tips

Finland to Win – The Finns should edge this, even if their defence gives up chances.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Given Finland’s shaky defence and Lithuania’s recent scoring form, this feels likely.
Correct Score: 2-1 Finland – A solid pick for those chasing longer odds.

Wrap Up

Finland might not be perfect at the back, but they’re still the stronger side here and have everything to play for. Lithuania can make things tricky, yet their losing habit is tough to shake. Expect goals on both sides — but the Finns should take the points in front of their fans.