🏈 Patriots vs Bills: Week 5 Preview

On Oct 6, 2025

It’s AFC East time again! The Buffalo Bills are hosting the New England Patriots this Sunday at Highmark Stadium, and even though the Bills are heavy favorites, you just never know in divisional games. The Pats are rebuilding under new coach Mike Vrabel, while Buffalo’s trying to prove they’re still one of the top dogs in the AFC.

📊 Form Guide

Buffalo Bills:
Josh Allen and the Bills bounced back last week after that rough start to the season. The offense looked more balanced with James Cook running hard, and the defense made life tough for opposing QBs again. Sitting at 3-1, Buffalo’s in solid shape but can’t afford a slip-up against a rival.

New England Patriots:
The Patriots are still finding their rhythm with rookie QB Drake Maye. He’s shown flashes — especially his accuracy on the move — but the offense hasn’t really clicked yet. The defense under Vrabel is scrappy though, keeping them in most games. New England’s 1-3, but they’ve been competitive.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

The Bills have owned this matchup lately, winning 5 of the last 6 against the Pats. The most recent one was a 27–17 Buffalo win where Josh Allen threw for over 250 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Patriots haven’t beaten Buffalo in Orchard Park since 2020.

🩹 Team News

Bills:
Wide receiver Curtis Samuel is questionable with a hamstring issue, and linebacker Terrel Bernard is day-to-day. Still, Buffalo’s depth should keep them strong on both sides.

Patriots:
All eyes are on Drake Maye, who’s expected to start again despite a few rookie mistakes. Tight end Hunter Henry and running back Rhamondre Stevenson will be key to giving him some relief. Kicker Andy Borregales has quietly been solid, too.

🔥 Players to Watch

Josh Allen (Bills QB): Can he stay mistake-free and keep his MVP-level play going?
James Cook (Bills RB): If he gets going early, the Bills can control the clock easily.
Drake Maye (Patriots QB): Every game is a new chapter for the rookie — can he handle the pressure at Highmark?
Hunter Henry (Patriots TE): Reliable target in the red zone and Maye’s safety blanket.

💰 Betting Tips

Spread: Bills -9.5 looks steep, but they’ve covered that number in 3 of their last 4 vs New England.
Over/Under: 43.5 — could lean under if the Patriots offense stays conservative.
Anytime TD: James Cook or Stefon Diggs (if active) both solid picks.

🧠 Prediction

Hard to see New England pulling this one off just yet. The Bills are more complete and have the home crowd behind them. Expect Allen to put up big numbers and the defense to keep Maye under pressure.

Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Patriots 13

📺 Where to Watch

TV: NBC (Sunday Night Football)
Kickoff: 8:20 PM ET
Stream: Peacock / NFL+ / local CBS affiliates (check listings)

🏁 Conclusion

The Patriots are in rebuild mode, and this matchup will be a big test for Drake Maye against one of the AFC’s top defenses. Meanwhile, Buffalo wants to stay hot and prove they can dominate the division again. Expect plenty of Josh Allen fireworks, a few rookie mistakes, and a fired-up Bills crowd in whiteout jerseys.