Biggest Narratives Heading Into the Second Half of the 2025 NFL Season
Immediately following Philadelphia’s destruction of the Kansas City Chiefs at Super Bowl LIX back in February, pundits projected power rankings, and Vegas set the odds ahead of the 2025 season. Now, however, half of that new season is already in the books, and to say the lay of the land is barely recognizable from those preseason predictions would be an understatement.
The league’s first half produced not just upsets, but a cavalcade of seismic twists rewriting the script before our eyes. With title favorites stumbling and new forces surging, the question echoing across every Sunday is simple—who, if anyone, is in control of the race for the Lombardi Trophy?
The reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs are currently in the box seat if the betting odds are to be believed, but even they were battered and winless after two outings before storming back to relevance. Now, the latest real-time betting Bovada odds price Patrick Mahomes and company as a +450 favorite for a third Lombardi in four seasons. But if the story of the season so far is anything to go by, it is to expect the unexpected.
In a season crackling with parity, the NFL’s contenders face the gauntlet with no certainties and every narrative still alive. But what are the biggest of those narratives as we head into the business end of the campaign? Let’s take a look.
The Rise of the Colts
Indianapolis sits where no one expected: perched atop the AFC, riding a 7-1 record with the NFL’s most potent attack.
You would have had to have been out of your mind to make such an outlandish projection before kick-off weekend. But their stunning transformation has been less Cinderella and more scientific marvel. Under the meticulous hand of Shane Steichen, the Colts have engineered the league’s first offense to exceed 35 points per game through an eight-game stretch. This isn’t merely a hot streak—it’s a calculated, weekly evisceration of opposing defenses.
Front and center is Daniel Jones, whose career has been reborn from a Giants disaster to an Indy folk hero – even if not everyone is convinced. In Steichen’s system, the newly
christened Indiana Jones has weaponized his deep ball, connecting on a staggering 68% of 20+ yard attempts, good for 12 touchdowns and top-3 in QBR for long throws. Every dropback carries intent, backed by a front five that’s surrendered just six sacks all season—an NFL low.
Yet the true power source is the scintillating form of running back Jonathan Taylor. His profile evokes Adrian Peterson in his MVP prime: over 2,000 rushing yards and 54 receptions projected, blending old-school workhorse with modern Swiss Army knife. Jones’ play-action fakes send defenders leaping at phantoms, their efficiency soaring by 38% whenever the handoff never happens.
The climax, however, is incoming. Kansas City is the only true heavyweight lurking on the schedule, and AFC top-seed status is well within reach. If the Colts can keep the engines running above 30 points per game, a ticket to their first Super Bowl since Peyton Manning’s heyday feels manifest.
Stumble, and the narrative flips: from unstoppable force to specious flash in the pan.
Rookie Revolution
Renowned for its unforgiving apprenticeship, the NFL occasionally witnesses a rookie charge; rarely has it been as sustained and spectacular as 2025’s. Jaxson Dart, thrust into the Big Apple hotseat after a string of dour campaigns, has reinvigorated the Giants and rewritten the arc of a flagging franchise with 987 yards and eight touchdowns in just four games. His first-year teammate Cam Skattebo has also taken MetLife Stadium by storm.
Turn your gaze to Tampa Bay, and it’s Emeka Egbuka crafting a parallel story. With 42 catches for 612 yards and six scores, the former Ohio State Buckeye not only tracks Puka Nacua’s rookie record but also shreds secondaries with a surgeon’s precision. His route-running and run-after-catch abilities have provided the perfect primary target for MVP contender Baker Mayfield, whose redemption arc is worthy of its own piece entirely.
Completing the holy trinity is Indy’s Tyler Warren, who has ripped up the tight end paradigm. With 38 catches, five receiving touchdowns, and—most audaciously—three more as a rusher, the rookie has become the darling of fantasy managers and the torment of linebackers league-wide as he leads the Colts back to the island of relevancy.
The road, though, grows treacherous: Dart’s mettle still has to somehow turn around a 2-6 record with clashes against the Packers, Lions, and Commanders all to come. Egbuka must navigate the Rams’ secondary—still one of football’s most opportunistic. If this group keeps firing, the “best rookie class ever?” argument will only grow louder.
Baltimore’s Last Stand
No narrative feels more raw than that of the Ravens, favored in the preseason, only to then be seemingly finished after six weeks, now holding onto playoff life with bleeding knuckles. After a 1-5 start, Baltimore clawed back a much-needed win, with new addition Tyler Huntley showing out on debut as Lamar Jackson continued to return to fitness. Now, the two-time MVP is back, and a favorable clash against the Miami Dolphins on TNF should see John Harbaugh improve to 3-6.
A Ravens win would shift the playoff algorithms even further. Baltimore is already -110 favorites to win the AFC North this season, despite their disastrous start. Much of that is due to the plight of their divisional cohorts, with the Bengals and Browns in disarray and the Steelers hardly setting the world alight despite currently topping the pile at 4-3. Even so, Lamar Jackson’s margin for error has been eviscerated, and he may know that just one loss across the next eight games could end his side’s postseason hopes once and for all.