Chiefs vs Jaguars Monday Night Showdown: Odds, Picks & Preview

On Oct 6, 2025

Chiefs vs Jaguars Monday Night Football Preview: Week 5 Odds & Best Bets

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Total: 45.5

Intro

The Chiefs are finally starting to look like, well, the Chiefs. After a rough start, Patrick Mahomes and crew have found their groove again, cruising through back-to-back wins — first a solid road win over the Giants, then a statement game at home against the Ravens. Both times, Kansas City didn’t just win — they covered the spread too.

Now they head into another tricky matchup, this time against the red-hot Jaguars, who’ve quietly been one of the most consistent teams in the league through four weeks.

Form Guide

Kansas City has been weirdly unpredictable in betting markets this season — not once a road dog or even a clear home favorite yet. Including their neutral-site opener in Brazil vs the Chargers, the Chiefs sit at 1-1 against the spread away from home. That fits the pattern from last year, where they were 4-2 ATS in similar spots.

The offense looked way more alive last week, thanks in part to the return of rookie sparkplug Xavier Worthy, who posted 121 all-purpose yards and earned a strong 81.0 PFF grade. His presence completely changed the vibe, with the offense jumping from a meh 45.3% positive EPA rate (20th in the league) through three weeks to a top-5 mark (56.8%) in Week 4.

On the flip side, the Jaguars are off to a hot start at 3-1 both straight up and ATS. They’ve been solid at home, covering as favorites over Carolina and Houston, and even scored a statement road win over the 49ers as underdogs.

Most expected the offense to take off under new OC Liam Coen, but it’s actually been the defense that’s stealing the spotlight. Jacksonville ranks 4th in overall PFF defensive grade and 2nd in EPA per play allowed.

Head-to-Head

These two teams have built a little rivalry over the past few seasons, and every meeting feels like a playoff preview. The Chiefs have generally had the upper hand in recent matchups, but the Jags’ defense this year might make things a lot more interesting.

Team News

The big news for Kansas City is the health and impact of Xavier Worthy — he’s clearly helping the offense click again. The rest of the key playmakers look good to go.

For Jacksonville, wideout Brian Thomas Jr. continues to struggle to find rhythm. Despite getting 31 targets (tied for 17th most in the league), he’s only converting on a few, with drops and contested-catch issues slowing him down. He’s gone under 56.5 receiving yards in every game so far.

Luckily, the Jags have solid depth. Parker Washington has stepped up nicely, and Dyami Brown’s return should help spread the field.

Prediction

It’s hard to bet against Mahomes when the offense is finally clicking again. The Jags’ defense will give them some resistance, especially if they keep forcing turnovers, but Kansas City just doesn’t cough up the ball (only one turnover all year).

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20

Players to Watch

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) – The rookie wideout is already changing games. His speed adds another dimension the Chiefs badly needed.
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) – Needs a clean game to keep the offense steady against a tough KC secondary.
Chris Jones (Chiefs) – Expect him to cause chaos in the pocket; he’s been in midseason form lately.

Betting Tips

Chiefs -3 feels like the smart side if their offense keeps rolling.
Under 45.5 might hit if Jacksonville’s defense keeps things tight early.
Player Prop: Brian Thomas Jr. under 56.5 receiving yards (-113) — he hasn’t topped that number yet this year.

Wrap Up

This Monday Night matchup is a great test for both teams — the Chiefs trying to prove they’re still elite, and the Jags showing they can hang with the AFC’s best. Expect a hard-fought, fairly close game, but Mahomes’ magic should be the difference in the end.

Final Thought: If you’re betting, lean Chiefs and keep an eye on the under. It’s going to be a grind-it-out kind of night in Jacksonville.