Fantasy Football Week 5: Hidden Breakout Stars Ready to Explode
Fantasy Football Week 5: Players About to Pop Off
Every fantasy manager, DFS grinder, or bettor out there is chasing the same thing — that hidden edge. Whether you’re diving into box scores or the deep analytics found in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0, the goal’s the same: find those breakout players before everyone else does.
Some of us use models like Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low or WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating). But now, there’s a fresh approach built to improve on WOPR’s insights — and it’s already changing how we spot future stars.
Quick Look Back: Week 4 Recap
Let’s rewind a bit and check out how last week’s picks performed:
Garrett Wilson: WR10 – 20.2 PPR points
DeVonta Smith: WR66 – 4.9 points (Eagles’ passing game went missing in the second half)
Justin Jefferson: WR8 – 22.6 points
Chris Olave: WR31 – 11.0 points
A.J. Brown: WR85 – 2.7 points (just two catchable targets all game)
Drake London: WR5 – 25.0 points
Jalen Nailor: WR52 – Found the end zone but lost volume after Addison’s return
Darnell Mooney: Left early with an injury
How the Model Works
This regression-to-the-mean model projects fantasy points per game (FPpG) using a player’s three-week PWOPR average. The smaller the difference between projected and actual points (a.k.a. the “residual”), the more stable the player’s future performance is.
If a player’s residual is -3.0 or lower, they’re on the “ready to break out” list. They stay on it until they either:
Blow up with a huge game
See their PWOPR drop to match current production
Week 5 Breakout Watch
A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles
If the Eagles’ passing struggles keep up, both of these studs will stay on this list all season.
A.J. Brown: 5th-best actual WOPR, 12th-best PWOPR
DeVonta Smith: 33rd-best WOPR, 2nd-best PWOPR
These are monster metrics, but Philly’s air attack just hasn’t clicked. Up next: the Denver Broncos, who have the 8th-worst coverage unit but a strong pass rush (9th-best).
The Broncos run a ton of Cover 1 and mix in 57% zone looks. PFF rates it as a good matchup for Brown and fair for Smith. If Pat Surtain II shadows Brown, Smith could be the one to finally go off.
Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints
Olave’s been peppered with targets (41, 2nd-most in the NFL) but hasn’t cashed in big yet. His advanced stats scream breakout:
10th in WOPR
7th in PWOPR
The Saints’ offense has been aggressive, but points are hard to come by. Rookie QB Spencer Rattler is slinging it with the 4th-most attempts but only a 62.4 PFF passing grade.
They face the Giants, a team that plays more man than zone — the only one in the league to do so. Olave thrives in man coverage, with his THREAT rate jumping from 26.6% to 28.6%.
Zay Flowers – Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers sits 10th in PWOPR in a normally electric Ravens offense. But if Lamar Jackson misses Week 5, things could get tricky. Backup Cooper Rush is fine, but the Texans’ zone-heavy defense (82%) limits Flowers’ impact — his THREAT dips significantly against zone looks.
So yeah, this might not be his week to explode.
Brian Thomas Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a fun one. Thomas, the second-year breakout candidate, ranks:
WR44 in fantasy points per game
11th in PWOPR
That means he’s due for positive regression. But he draws the Kansas City Chiefs, the league’s top coverage team, with the 5th-best quick pressure rate.The Chiefs mostly play zone but dominate in man coverage, too.
Thomas could still flash, but this matchup’s no joke.
Jakobi Meyers & Brock Bowers – Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas faces the Colts, who are bottom-tier against zone and downright bad versus tight ends.
Indy coverage grade: 10th-worst in the league
Against TEs: 8th-worst in yards per reception allowed
Meyers actually gets a small bump (+0.04 THREAT) versus zone coverage, which Indy uses about 71% of the time. And since the Colts’ offense has been on fire — 2nd in overall strength, 1st in passing — this could push the Raiders to air it out more.
Jerry Jeudy & Dillon Gabriel – Cleveland Browns
The Browns take on the Vikings in London, and it’s going to be rough for rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. Minnesota’s defense, led by Brian Flores, blitzes more than anyone and ranks:
1st in blitz rate
4th in quick pressure rate
Jeudy might not have much room to work with if Gabriel can’t stay upright. Expect a learning experience more than a breakout here.
Players to Watch This Week
A.J. Brown – Bounce-back potential vs. Broncos
DeVonta Smith – Could torch Denver if Brown’s covered
Chris Olave – Perfect man-coverage matchup
Brian Thomas Jr. – Sneaky GPP DFS play despite Chiefs’ defense
Jakobi Meyers – Volume bump incoming
Brock Bowers – Solid tight end sleeper pick
Fantasy Betting Tips
Target WRs facing man-heavy defenses (like Olave vs. Giants)
Fade zone-dependent receivers (like Flowers this week)
Stack Eagles WRs in DFS — one of them’s bound to break loose
Monitor QB situations — Lamar Jackson’s absence could kill Flowers’ upside
Final Thoughts
Every player listed here has the metrics and opportunity to explode soon — even if Week 5 isn’t the moment. Regression always evens things out eventually, and when it hits, these names are the ones you’ll wish you had in your lineup.
Stay sharp, play the matchups, and don’t be afraid to trust the numbers. The breakouts are coming — maybe this week, maybe next — but they’re definitely coming.