🔥 NFL Week 5 Prop Picks: Kamara Set to Run Wild, Ertz in Trouble
NFL Week 5 Prop Betting Preview: Targets Worth Your Ticket
The NFL season’s heating up, and Week 5 is packed with juicy betting angles. Whether you’ve been grinding props every week or just dipping your toes into NFL betting, the new PFF Player Prop Tool is a game changer — matchup data, hit rates, and insights all in one spot.
Let’s dive into a couple of player prop bets that stand out this week.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints – Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Saints’ run game has quietly been one of the better ones in the league this season. They sit fifth in PFF’s team rushing grade (77.9), and while their game scripts have sometimes forced them to throw more than they’d like, they still lean on the run when things stay close. In tight games (within three points), New Orleans runs the ball nearly 46% of the time — top 12 in the NFL.
This week’s matchup against the Giants might be exactly what Kamara needs to cook. New York’s run defense has been a mess — bottom three in almost every key stat. They rank 32nd in EPA per rush allowed, 31st in yards per carry, and 30th in explosive run rate. Basically, every running back they’ve faced lately has had a field day, with three of the last four topping 80+ rushing yards.
Even though rookie Kendre Miller is getting more involved, Kamara still has that burst and vision that makes him special. He’s already ripped off seven runs of 10+ yards this season (tied for 11th in the NFL). Given how soft this Giants defense has been, there’s enough volume and opportunity for Kamara to hit — and possibly crush — this over.
TE Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders – Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
On the flip side, this might not be a great spot for Zach Ertz. With Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown sidelined — and Deebo Samuel not at 100% — Ertz’s line has climbed to its highest mark of the year. But recent results say it might be too high. Just last week, under almost identical conditions, Ertz managed only 21 yards against Atlanta — marking the third time this year he’s gone under this number.
Now he’s up against a Chargers defense that knows how to handle tight ends. Derwin James is a nightmare matchup — an elite coverage guy who thrives in these situations. He’s posted an 89.8 PFF coverage grade on targets to tight ends, allowing just 3.2 yards per target and a 65.4 passer rating when quarterbacks throw his way.
In short? Expect Ertz to have his hands full and likely fall short of 40 yards again.
Players to Watch
Alvin Kamara (Saints): Dual-threat back with a chance to torch a weak Giants front.
Kendre Miller (Saints): Could steal a few touches but still worth monitoring.
Derwin James (Chargers): Key piece in shutting down Washington’s tight ends.
Betting Tips
Kamara Over 55.5 rushing yards feels like one of the safer plays this week.
Ertz Under 40.5 receiving yards is worth a look, especially with matchup concerns.
Always check for injury updates and weather before locking anything in — both can shift lines fast.
Wrap-Up
Week 5’s got a mix of solid value and sneaky traps in the prop market. Kamara’s matchup screams upside, while Ertz’s situation looks like one to fade. Use the data, trust the trends, and play smart. Good luck cashing those tickets this Sunday! 🏈💰