NFL Week 6 Betting: Early Lines Worth Jumping On
Week 5 is almost done, and sportsbooks have already dropped their odds for Week 6. That means it’s the perfect time to grab some early value before the lines start shifting. Here are two early bets that stand out heading into the next slate.
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) [Total: 47.5]
Bookmakers keep underestimating the Colts, and bettors are cashing in. Indy’s sitting on an NFL-best 80% cover rate (4-1 ATS), with the lone miss being that weird Week 4 loss to the Rams. At Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts are undefeated against the spread (3-0), covering easily in back-to-back home wins. Their average spread differential of +12.9 is the best mark in the league — meaning they’re not just winning, they’re winning big.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s heading the opposite way. The Cardinals just dropped a brutal one to the previously winless Titans — as 7.5-point home favorites, no less. Sloppy turnovers and inconsistency have been their downfall, especially with the run game. The backfield rotation hasn’t clicked, and the Cards now rank in the bottom eight in both EPA per rush and successful run rate. That’s bad news against a Colts team that thrives on efficiency.
Indy currently owns the league’s most productive offense, leading the NFL in EPA per play, success rate, and touchdown drive percentage. If the Cardinals can’t slow that down or control possession, this could snowball fast in favor of the home team.
Pick: Colts -4.5 feels like a gift before the line moves.
New England Patriots (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints [Total: 46.5]
The Patriots just pulled off a statement win over the Bills on Sunday Night Football, but the market hasn’t adjusted enough. Through five weeks, New England looks like a team on the rise — especially with rookie QB Drake Maye showing serious star potential.
Maye ranks top-five in both EPA per play and success rate, while also posting one of the best PFF grades among quarterbacks. The kid’s the real deal, and the Pats’ offense is starting to look legit.
Defensively, New England’s also trending up. With key players back healthy, they’ve shut down two straight opponents — first smothering Carolina, then holding Buffalo to season lows in nearly every offensive stat.
The Saints, on the other hand, lean heavy on the run, but that’s a poor matchup here. The Patriots rank among the top five in rushing EPA allowed, meaning their front seven can stuff New Orleans’ bread-and-butter attack.
With Maye’s confidence growing and the defense playing lights out, this Patriots team is a tier above the Saints right now. Even factoring in home-field advantage, the -3.5 line feels too short.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 — grab it before it jumps past a key number.
Players to Watch
Drake Maye (NE): The rookie QB keeps climbing the charts. His poise and deep-ball accuracy have changed the Patriots’ offense overnight.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): A big part of Indy’s offensive dominance. Expect him to be featured heavily again versus Arizona’s shaky secondary.
Kyler Murray (ARI): Needs a bounce-back game after last week’s mistakes. If he doesn’t take care of the ball, the Cardinals could be in trouble early.
Betting Tips
Look for early line value on strong home teams like the Colts before public money inflates the spread.
The Patriots’ defense props (like total sacks or turnovers forced) might also hold sneaky value against a Saints team that struggles to pass consistently.
Both totals are around mid-40s, but leaning UNDER might make sense given the defensive edges in these matchups.
Wrap-Up
Week 6 is shaping up nicely for early bettors. The Colts look primed to keep rolling at home, and the Patriots seem undervalued even after a big prime-time win. Grab these lines now — because come Friday, they might not look as friendly.