Mathematician details the fight and chances of relegation in the Brazilian Championship.

The Brazilian Championship is drawing to a close, and in addition to the fight for the title and a spot in the next Libertadores Cup, the battle against relegation to Série B in 2026 has heated up in the final rounds. Many teams are fighting to avoid relegation, point by point, and mathematician Tristão Garcia, speaking to Lance!, updated the chances of relegation for those involved and explained how the study is conducted.

In the Brasileirão round spread throughout the week, Fortaleza won against Red Bull Bragantino away from home and got back into the game. Juventude, in 19th place, ahead of last-placed Sport, is six points behind Vitória, the first team outside the relegation zone. According to Tristão, Juventude is virtually relegated, with a near 99% chance of it happening.

— Juventude, with a 99% chance, is virtually relegated. Therefore, two spots in next year’s Série B are clearly open. The two most significant risks are also in the relegation zone (Z-4), but with altered numbers compared to the last round. Vasco and Ceará are above them, with 4% and 5% chances respectively, but they would need to be quite incompetent and very unlucky with only three rounds remaining. The quickest assessment is that there are four teams vying for two spots. Fortaleza, Santos, Vitória, and Inter are the strongest contenders.

Tristão Garcia, speaking to Lance!, made the new calculation based on his studies. Fortaleza’s chances decreased, although they remain high, while Inter, Santos, and Vitória saw their percentages increase. The mathematician explained the method for the calculations in the Brazilian Championship.

“The program can identify which team has a better cycle than another. Then it looks at the head-to-head record, whether they won, the big games, the number of away games and wins… It goes beyond the cold numbers. Home advantage, the teams’ current form also count. Then you start drawing up a profile based on these criteria. It’s a model that’s been tested for over 20 years and gets it right every time. The case-by-case study works.”

20th Sport (already relegated)
19th Juventude – 99%
18th Fortaleza – 73%
17th Santos – 61%
16th Vitória – 43%
15th Internacional – 15%
14th Ceará – 5%
13th Vasco – 4%